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Hotter seas put Murcia on flood watch this autumn
Sea temperatures 3ºC higher than normal could trigger torrential downpours across the Region of Murcia
The August heatwave may have come to an end but the Mediterranean shows no signs of cooling, leading experts to advise that the Region of Murcia should be bracing for a dangerous autumn. Water temperatures are closing out the month around 3ºC higher than normal, greatly increasing the flood risk.
"The existence of warm waters, with the potential risk of flooding in the Mediterranean, has already become the new normal," cautioned Jorge Olcina, director of the Climatology Laboratory at the University of Alicante and co-author of the Climate Risks Region of Murcia 2024 report.
As a member of the United Nations Panel on Climate Change, he knows what this means. Warm waters in the Mediterranean have become a constant trigger for torrential rains and flooding.
And with summer still in full swing, Mr Olcina is already stressing the need to be ready well in advance.
“This constitutes one of the risk factors for a flood and torrential rains, so we must always be prepared for complicated autumns,” he explained.
The hotter the Mediterranean Sea, the more evaporation builds up, waiting for the right weather pattern to spark severe downpours. The tricky part is timing. Meteorologists can only predict these atmospheric conditions three or four days in advance.
This is similar to what happened during the DANA floods that devastated the Valencian Community; even though heavy rains were forecast, it wasn’t until the very morning of the disaster that a red warning was activated.
Given this very recent tragic event, Mr Olcina believes the Region of Murcia cannot afford to take chances. He is urging the authorities to make sure all Civil Protection systems and public warning protocols are fully operational now, not later.
Clearing out riverbeds is another priority to prevent floodwaters from surging and putting lives at risk.
“This must be done now to start the month of September with greater security,” he insisted.
The latest data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts shows parts of the eastern Mediterranean sitting at more than 30ºC, with waters off Libya and Turkey reaching 32ºC. Closer to home, sea temperatures off the coast of Murcia are around 28ºC after a summer of relentless heat waves.
Despite the clear risks, the Region of Murcia is still waiting for the Territorial Plan for Flood Risk Prevention, a framework designed to steer urban development away from high-risk flood zones. The Ministry of Public Works reactivated the project at the end of 2024 following the devastating Valencia floods, but it had been left on hold since 2020.
This week, Mr Olcina highlighted the urgency of putting this plan in place, not only for Murcia but for the entire Mediterranean coastline.
“It is necessary for the Region and all those along the Mediterranean coast to have a plan of this type, as is already the case in the Valencian Community, since they largely share the same characteristics of heavy rainfall and flooding.”
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